Navegando por Palavras-chave "Time series"
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- ItemAcesso aberto (Open Access)Avaliação dos impactos à saúde e da evolução temporal da dengue nos Municípios de Ribeirão Preto e São Paulo(Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), 2018-09-21) Gabriel, Ana Flavia Barbosa [UNIFESP]; Miraglia, Simone Georges El Khouri [UNIFESP]; Guimarães, Marcelo de Paiva; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5035762125459415; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6423311971848669; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4538424488673789; Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)Objectives: To evaluate the health impacts of the chemical control applied in the fight against dengue, as well as to analyze the relationship between the occurrence of cases of the disease and precipitation. In addition to evaluate the temporal evolution of dengue cases in the municipalities of Ribeirão Preto and São Paulo, in order to observe incidence patterns to fit predictive models for one year out of the sample. Methods: The objectives were divided into scientific article and the data analysis was specific to each article. In first article a bibliographic review was carried out to build a network of impacts, which facilitated the visualization of the possible direct and indirect impacts from the application of insecticides in the fight against dengue. The methodology of Health Impact Assessment was applied for a characterization of the one of the impacts identified in the network, being quantitative and qualitative analysis were conducted. In the second article we used the Spearman’s Correlation, with the concept of time lag, to analyze the association between dengue occurrence and precipitation in the municipally of Ribeirão Preto. In the third article, time series tools were used, more specifically, Seasonal Integrated Autoregressive Integrated and Moving Average methods to predict dengue cases for one year out of the sample. Results: In the first article it was possible to have a broad and systematic view of the economic, environmental and health impacts caused by chemical control. In addition, there was an increase in dengue cases after an insecticide application, demonstrating an inefficiency of this type of control. The second article showed that precipitation contributes to the generation of new cases of dengue one to five months after its occurrence. In the third article, from the evaluation of the temporal evolution it was possible to adjust SARIMA models, which forecast for one year out of the sample. Conclusion: We concluded with this study that understanding the possible impacts of chemical control on health, as well as the temporal evolution of dengue and the factors that may influence its transmission dynamics, is relevant for public awareness and for rethinking public policies in the attempt to eliminate dengue as a burden on public health.
- ItemAcesso aberto (Open Access)Doenças isquêmicas do coração: mortalidade em nativos e migrantes, São Paulo, 1979-1998(Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo, 2003-12-01) Marcopito, Luiz Francisco [UNIFESP]; Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP)OBJECTIVE: The State of São Paulo has been a major center of attraction for foreign and Brazilian migrants since the 19th century. The pattern of mortality due to ischemic heart disease according to place of birth is, however, unknown. Thus, the objective of the study was to identify differences in mortality due to ischemic heart disease among residents of the State of São Paulo according to their place of birth. METHODS: Analytical time series study based on secondary data. Rates were not calculated due to lack of denominators. Instead, non-census indicators (proportional mortality and standardized mortality ratio weighted for years of potential life lost before the age of 100 years) and medians were utilized. Temporal trends were analyzed by means of simple linear regression. RESULTS: In the State of São Paulo, about 40% of deaths due to ischemic heart disease occurred among migrants. The trend was negative for foreigners and positive for Brazilian migrants. Those born in northeastern Brazil, who presented the highest percentage of deaths in hospitals, had the worst performance: their proportional mortality due to ischemic heart disease remained unchanged throughout the study period (while this clearly declined for all other groups) and they died at younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: Migrants' share of total deaths due to ischemic heart disease in the State of São Paulo is very high. While there is a declining trend for foreigners, it is growing among Brazilian migrants. Among the compared groups, mortality due to ischemic heart disease in the State of São Paulo is most prominent for those born in northeastern Brazil.
- ItemSomente MetadadadosImprovement of food safety in school meal service during a long-term intervention period: a strategy based on the knowledge, attitude and practice triad(Elsevier B.V., 2013-12-01) Cunha, Diogo Thimoteo da [UNIFESP]; Fiorotti, Rose Magda; Baldasso, Juliana Garcia; Sousa, Maricy de; Fontanezi, Nathalia Moretti; Caivano, Simone; Stedefeldt, Elke [UNIFESP]; Rosso, Veridiana Vera de [UNIFESP]; Rubim Camargo, Maria Cristina; Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP); Prefeitura Municipal Sao Caetano do Sul; Inst Nutra & VivaThe objective of the present study was to evaluate the development of food safety scores in school meal services during the application of a systematic intervention based on the knowledge, attitude and practice triad. A total of 68 public schools were included in the study. School meal services were assessed every three months with a checklist, which resulted in eight evaluations over two years. A program was developed and implemented in all the schools during this period that was comprised of three steps: 1) theoretical training, 2) implementation of action plans in situ and 3) weekly visits to motivate food handlers and monitor good practices. These steps were designed to promote changes in the attitudes and practices of food handlers. An ascending linear function was observed for the school meal services' general adequacy percentage over time. Positive developments were also observed regarding buildings and facilities, processes and procedures, distribution of meals, integrated pest management, water control, controls and records, health and safety of employees and equipment and utensils. Our results suggest that the proposed intervention strategy performs well in making school meal services conform to good practices and that strategies in this context should be permanent and continuous. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
- ItemSomente MetadadadosPhenological visual rhythms: Compact representations for fine-grained plant species identification(Elsevier Science Bv, 2016) Almeida, Jurandy [UNIFESP]; dos Santos, Jefersson A.; Alberton, Bruna; Morellato, Leonor Patricia C.; Torres, Ricardo da S.Plant phenology, the study of recurrent life cycles events and its relationship to climate, is a key discipline in climate change research. In this context, digital cameras have been effectively used to monitor leaf flushing and senescence on vegetations across the world. A primary condition for the phenological observation refers to the correct identification of plants by taking into account time series associated with their crowns in the digital images. In this paper, we present a novel approach for representing phenological patterns of plant species. The proposed method is based on encoding time series as a visual rhythm. Here, we focus on applications of our approach for plant species identification. In this scenario, visual rhythms are characterized by image description algorithms. A comparative analysis of different descriptors is conducted and discussed. Experimental results show that our approach presents high accuracy on identifying individual plant species from its specific visual rhythm. Additionally, our representation is compact, making it suitable for long-term data series. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.